【TFSC】Implications of cryptocurrency energy usage on climate change 加密货币能源使用对气候变化的影响——张健分享

科研基地组织前沿文献研读交流会，张健针对2023年发表于国际权威期刊Technological Forecasting & Social Change的论文Implications of cryptocurrency energy usage on climate change进行主题分享。

文章探讨了加密货币能源能耗对气候变化的环境影响。通过采用多种研究方法，包括分位数间的格兰杰因果关系、跨分位数图以及动态关联性分析，为比特币挖矿与气候变化之间的关联提供了新的证据。首先，发现二氧化碳（CO2）排放量与比特币能耗之间存在显著的格兰杰因果关系，且该关系主要集中在右尾分位数区间。其次，哈希算力、区块链规模、比特币收益率对比特币电力消耗量的定向可预测性存在异质性。同时，比特币挖矿能耗与二氧化碳排放量之间存在显著的定向可预测性。第三，动态关联性分析结果表明，哈希算力向二氧化碳排放量和比特币电力消耗传递的净溢出效应最显著，由此可见哈希算力是影响比特币能耗与气候变化的核心因素。研究强调了推动技术进步、开发节能型去中心化金融共识算法的必要性，以将加密货币市场转变为气候友好型市场。研究结果通过强调加密货币生态系统脱碳在应对环境问题中的重要性，为政策制定提供了启示。

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the environmental implications of cryptocurrency energy consumption on climate change. Using a spectrum of approaches, including Granger causality across quantiles, cross-quantilograms, and dynamic connectedness, we provide novel evidence on the nexus between Bitcoin mining and climate change. First, we find a significant Granger causality between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the energy usage of Bitcoin that concentrates on the right-tail quantiles. Second, we show that the directional predictability from hash rate, blockchain size, and Bitcoin returns to Bitcoin electricity consumption is heterogeneous. We also discover significant directional predictability between the energy usage of Bitcoin mining and CO2 emissions. Third, the dynamic connectedness results show that hash rate transmits the most substantial net spillover effects to CO2 emissions and Bitcoin electricity consumption. Accordingly, hash rate exerts a major influence on Bitcoin electricity consumption and climate change. This study highlights the necessity of stimulating technological advances in developing energy-efficient decentralized finance consensus algorithms to transform the cryptocurrencymarket into a climate-friendly market. The results provide policy implications by emphasizing the importance of cryptocurrency ecosystem decarbonization in addressing environmental concerns.